Publication date: 20 July 2020
Article Summary Line:
An age and risk stratified transmission model of COVID-19 transmission shows that case isolation and contact quarantine alone are insufficient to constrain presentations within feasible levels of expansion of health sector capacity in Australia, and that overlaid social
restrictions must be applied over the course of the epidemic to ensure systems do not become overwhelmed.
Keywords:
Coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, novel coronavirus, modelling, healthcare capacity, health sector capacity, isolation, quarantine, case-finding, contact tracing, ICU, ITU, social
distancing, NPIs, non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Title:
Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures
and health system preparedness.
Authors:
Moss R (PhD), Wood J (PhD), Brown D (FACRRM), Shearer FM (PhD), Black, AJ (PhD),
Glass K (PhD), Cheng AC (FRACP), McCaw JM (PhD), McVernon J (FAFPHM).
Affiliations:
1. Modelling and Simulation Unit, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Australia (Moss, R. Shearer FM. McCaw, JM. McVernon, J.)
2. School of Public Health and Community Medicine, UNSW Sydney, Australia (Wood, J.)
3. Victorian Infectious Diseases Laboratory Epidemiology Unit at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity; The University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia (Brown, D. McCaw, JM. McVernon, J.)
4. School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Adelaide, Australia (Black, AJ.) 2
5. ANU Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Australia (Glass, K.)
6. Infection Prevention and Healthcare Epidemiology Unit, Alfred Health; School of Public
Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Australia (Cheng, AC.)
7. School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Australia (McCaw,JM.)
8. Infection and Immunity Theme, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, the Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne, Australia (McVernon, J.)